By historic standards, Donald Trump’s approval ratings are limp. The Economist is tracking Americans’ opinions with polling conducted by YouGov. His net approval rating nationwide is currently 12 percentage points under water: 41% of Americans approve of his handling of his job as president while 53% disapprove.
It is easy to imagine that this dissatisfaction is confined to Democratic states. For three elections in a row, Mr Trump has won a higher share of the vote in swing states as a whole than nationwide. To test this we projected Mr Trump’s approval rating in each of the 50 states plus Washington, DC. We built a statistical model to predict how 34,000 of YouGov’s respondents since January rate Mr Trump’s performance. We then applied this statistical model to the country at large—using census data, election results and other polling. The results suggest that Mr Trump’s approval rating is negative among voters in each of the seven swing states.
As you might expect, the factor which most influences respondents’ ratings is their voting history. Mr Trump’s voters still have an overwhelmingly positive view of his performance. Even so, enough of them disapprove that we estimate his net approval among those who voted in November’s election ranges from minus four in Arizona to minus eight in Wisconsin.
Posted by WildestDreams_
6 Comments
Skeptical about any model that shows him underwater in states with 400+ electoral votes. Obv not the same thing as saying he would lose IN, MO, TX, FL, etc if there was an election today, but this seems over the top.
Buyer’s remorse. Sadly no refund policy.
Eh, even taking this at face value it doesn’t actually matter. The political memory at this point is so short that this won’t matter for the midterms much less ’28. Look I hope it continues, but this seems like a non-story especially given he is a lame duck.
1. He’s won two elections so far with bad approval ratings and nearly squeaked out a third. The next election will be about whether the Dem candidate can capitalize on this weakness.
2. We’re really just resigned to the fact that he’s gonna run again huh
Too little too late
And yet, he remains more popular than the Democratic Party amongst those polled.
When participating in politics as a “race to the bottom”, it is not just eveyone who loses, but after a while, you as well.