Well, that may have explained the psychotic behavior we saw over the past 90 minutes where that 6th barrage was almost certainly past the ceasefire timeline.
Though the IDF apparently has 12 hours to respond so maybe the ceasefire holds.
kaesura on
In the first days of the fighting Mr Khamenei, ageing and isolated for his own safety, disappeared from the scene like the Shias’ hidden Imam. He delegated decision-making to a new council, or *shura*, dominated by the IRGC. “The country is in effect under martial law,” says an observer.
As the IRGC gains control its elite is being transformed at speed by Israel’s assassinations. Gone are the veteran commanders who for years pursued “strategic patience”, limiting their fire when their totemic leader, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020, and holding it when Israel battered their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in 2024. Now a new generation, impatient and more dogmatic, has taken their place and is bent on redeeming national pride. “The maximalist position has been strengthened,” says an academic close to the reformist camp. He claims the decision-makers in place before the war were debating whether to ditch their anti-Israel stance. But “everyone is now a hardliner”.
Hardliners have always been against talks with America. They remember Muammar Qaddafi, the Libyan dictator, who surrendered weapons of mass destruction in exchange for a lifting of sanctions, and Saddam Hussein, who granted UN monitors unfettered access to Iraq. Both were toppled by Western interventions. Now even moderates feel burned: the last round of talks with America, set for June 15th, fooled them into lowering their guard just as Israel attacked.
Many generals are eager to maintain their strikes on Israel which, they argue, have punctured its aura of invincibility. Israel’s destruction of half their missile launchers has slowed the rate, they admit. But more advanced systems, perhaps launched from the sea, are to come, says Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander.A growing caucus advocates dashing for a bomb.
But the prospect of Iran being ruled by its new *shura* indefinitely has other consequences, not least a defiant and even more militarised state hellbent on defiance and reprisals, and more ruthless in tamping down internal dissent. The outside world has often assumed that Iran’s regime exhibits reckless risk-taking and belligerence because it has been run by religious men. The danger is the military men are worse.
kaesura on
IRGC hardliners have already de facto seized power in Iran in outrage over perceived weak leadership of clerical elites. One thing that is certain is that the pro-Western negotiation factions have been repeatedly humiliated.
Not surprising, this is still an autocratic theocracy. It’s been 12 days of total humiliation, you can’t sell the way they’ve had it rubbed in their faces to actual fanatics.
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!ping Middle-East
Well, that may have explained the psychotic behavior we saw over the past 90 minutes where that 6th barrage was almost certainly past the ceasefire timeline.
Though the IDF apparently has 12 hours to respond so maybe the ceasefire holds.
In the first days of the fighting Mr Khamenei, ageing and isolated for his own safety, disappeared from the scene like the Shias’ hidden Imam. He delegated decision-making to a new council, or *shura*, dominated by the IRGC. “The country is in effect under martial law,” says an observer.
As the IRGC gains control its elite is being transformed at speed by Israel’s assassinations. Gone are the veteran commanders who for years pursued “strategic patience”, limiting their fire when their totemic leader, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020, and holding it when Israel battered their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in 2024. Now a new generation, impatient and more dogmatic, has taken their place and is bent on redeeming national pride. “The maximalist position has been strengthened,” says an academic close to the reformist camp. He claims the decision-makers in place before the war were debating whether to ditch their anti-Israel stance. But “everyone is now a hardliner”.
Hardliners have always been against talks with America. They remember Muammar Qaddafi, the Libyan dictator, who surrendered weapons of mass destruction in exchange for a lifting of sanctions, and Saddam Hussein, who granted UN monitors unfettered access to Iraq. Both were toppled by Western interventions. Now even moderates feel burned: the last round of talks with America, set for June 15th, fooled them into lowering their guard just as Israel attacked.
Many generals are eager to maintain their strikes on Israel which, they argue, have punctured its aura of invincibility. Israel’s destruction of half their missile launchers has slowed the rate, they admit. But more advanced systems, perhaps launched from the sea, are to come, says Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander.A growing caucus advocates dashing for a bomb.
But the prospect of Iran being ruled by its new *shura* indefinitely has other consequences, not least a defiant and even more militarised state hellbent on defiance and reprisals, and more ruthless in tamping down internal dissent. The outside world has often assumed that Iran’s regime exhibits reckless risk-taking and belligerence because it has been run by religious men. The danger is the military men are worse.
IRGC hardliners have already de facto seized power in Iran in outrage over perceived weak leadership of clerical elites. One thing that is certain is that the pro-Western negotiation factions have been repeatedly humiliated.
[@MazMHussain](https://xcancel.com/MazMHussain)
> get absolutely pummeled
> entire leadership killed
> lose your nuclear program
> lose your entire global proxy network
> non of your allies/proxies want to help you
> become more extreme
Bold strategy
Not surprising, this is still an autocratic theocracy. It’s been 12 days of total humiliation, you can’t sell the way they’ve had it rubbed in their faces to actual fanatics.
https://preview.redd.it/csb1m9he3t8f1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee0a4fd190500a96a14c9a2b60048ff354ffabe8