First YouGov MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party | YouGov
Posted by ScythianUnborne
First YouGov MRP since 2024 election shows a hung parliament with Reform UK as largest party | YouGov
Posted by ScythianUnborne
8 Comments
> If an election were held tomorrow, the central projection from our MRP estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, falling to 178 seats, but in doing so become second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest force.
> According to our data and models, Nigel Farage’s party would come out of an election with 271 seats, an enormous improvement on their 2024 total of five, placing the party close to government.
!ping UK&FIVEY
1 **major** caveat from YouGov:
> A note at this stage should be made about the performance of other, smaller parties and independent candidates.
> The MRP at the moment expects that we would only see three such candidates (plus the Speaker) win a constituency contest if an election were being held now.
> However, the model is currently not asking for specific candidate names, so it will likely be underestimating the specific popularity of specific independent candidates in seats they already hold.
Reminder again:
Nigel Farage had never held a British job outside politics.
He was a Dulwich college, a private boys college Prefect.
He became a tory after meeting John major before Thatcher was in government.
His first job was Drexel Burnham Lambert. Yes, THAT one.
Then credit Lyonnais Rouse.
Then Refco.
Then Nataxis, and I’ve still have yet to see period he ever left or terminated or resigned Nataxis’s employ.
People will doom but polls this far out don’t mean a damn thing.
Imagine how popular Boris was in mid 2021, compared to sunak 3 years later.
Like i do see the rise of reform, it’s real, it means something, but it isn’t some apocalyptic scenario.
I think my only cope at this point is Reform’s bench strength will be severely tested. They couldn’t even properly vet all 5 of their MPs, 2 or 300 will turn up enough problems to cost them a lot of seats.
I hope???
>The lowest winning total in YouGov’s MRP projection today is 24% for Reform UK in Aylesbury. There are in fact no fewer than 143 constituencies in which the projected winner has under 30% of the vote.
Hey, Keir! There’s this bill going through Parliament about introducing proportional representation that would fix this and make it harder for Reform from getting these numbers or better with a third of the vote. Can you maybe put the country’s interests ahead of your party’s interests and back this?
The next general election will happen in 4 years, unless an early one is called, it hasn’t even been a year since the last one, I’m generally unhappy with the lack of ambition from the government but it feels like the political environment is manufacturing a lame duck premiership already. People should chill a little bit.
The next US presidential election is scheduled earlier than this.
Interesting, the projections indicate a Reform-Tory coalition would fall ~10 seats short of a majority. In fact Labour+LibDem+SNP+Greens+Plaid Cymru would be just behind them overall.
This indicates the UK would be completely ungovernable. Even if all Tory MPs decided to work with Reform in a minority government which is itself not guaranteed. Even if some Tories decided to give confidence and supply to a left-of-center coalition with the regionalist/independence parties, it would absolutely not be stable.
In the first scenario, a hypothetical PM Farage, who is and has historically been shit at party management, wouldn’t last very long and his premiership would utterly collapse.