U.S. intelligence suspects Pakistan is actively developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) equipped with nuclear warheads, potentially capable of striking targets within the United States.

CNBC — Pakistan is reportedly advancing efforts to build a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the continental United States.

According to a Foreign Affairs magazine report, if successful, the development would mark a significant expansion of Islamabad's strategic military reach and could lead Washington to officially classify as a nuclear adversary.

"Although Pakistan claims its nuclear programme is strictly focused on deterring India, which enjoys conventional military superiority, U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the Pakistani military is developing an ICBM that could reach the

US intelligence agencies believe that this potential ICBM programme is part of Pakistan's broader attempt to deter not only India but also the United States from interfering in any South Asian conflict in the future, as per Foreign Affairs.

"In acquiring such a capability, Pakistan might be seeking to deter the United States from either trying to eliminate its arsenal in a preventive attack or intervening on India’s behalf in a future Indian-Pakistani conflict," it added.

ICBMs typically have a range exceeding 5,500 km and can be equipped with nuclear or conventional warheads.

The China angle

The report suggests that Pakistan's pursuit of long-range missile capabilities has been boosted by its close ties with China. While Beijing has not openly supported Islamabad's ICBM development, it has consistently provided military and economic assistance. This may have indirectly enhanced Pakistan's missile infrastructure.

The Foreign Affairs report highlighted that China's support may include tacit approval of such programmes, which could further complicate the strategic situation for both New Delhi and Washington.

For decades, Pakistan has viewed its nuclear arsenal as a counterbalance to India's superiority in conventional arms. However, the decision to pursue an ICBM represents an escalation in the region's arms race, sources familiar with South Asian defence atmosphere/expertise told the publication.

Security implications

Concerns over the safety and control of Pakistan's nuclear assets have long troubled US policymakers. Given Pakistan's history of instability and terrorist groups, any expansion of its long-range nuclear capabilities brings renewed fears of unauthorised access or security breaches, as per Foreign Affairs.

"As U.S. officials have noted, if Pakistan acquires an ICBM, Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary—no other country with ICBMs that can target the United States is considered a friend," the report noted.

As the nuclear balance shifts in Asia, both the US and India are likely to reassess their strategic policies. The emergence of Pakistan as a long-range nuclear threat adds a new layer of complexity to the global security environment.