“From Putin’s perspective, therefore, the stakes could hardly be higher and the benefits of continuing the war currently far outweigh the costs. This will only change if he finds himself confronted with the threat of military defeat in Ukraine and the very real prospect of a new Russian national collapse.”
This is a bleak outlook IMO. Trump and the EU will not escalate and as said in earlier in the article there is basically no internal unrest from the war. So it doesn’t appear any reason to stop the war for Putin is forthcoming.
Lame_Johnny on
Summary: He’s unleashed forces that he can’t control and he’s afraid of what will happen once the music stops.
Leopold_Darkworth on
Putin promised his people swift, decisive victory in Ukraine. Two-and-a-half years later, the war has decimated Russia’s population of military-age men as well as significant portions of its air force and navy (to the point where it has to ask *North Korea* for help), bolstered Europe and NATO’s alliance, and subjected it to ever-increasing sanctions. Anything less than a complete takeover of Ukraine—to include just keeping the territory they’ve stolen since 2023—would be seen as an unmitigated failure. Although I’m not sure what punishment Putin would suffer politically? He’s a dictator who murders anyone who dares to challenge him, unless we get into a *Richard II* situation where enough wealthy oligarchs rise up to overthrow him, with the assistance of the Russian military.
RevisedThoughts on
Apart from Putin’s personal arrogance and aggression, there are at least 2 things that I think make the deal offered difficult for Russia to sign off on.
The first is having to trust that a deal with Trump would be honored by Trump himself for a sustained period. He has not shown a capacity for consistency, eg in how he wields tariff and trade threats.
The second is the strategic geopolitical goal Trump has argued for is to make an alliance with Russia against China. Putin seems to have decided that such realignment would not be in Russia’s best interest. It would therefore be unlikely that any peace deal promising US / NATO restraint would be sustained in the context of Russia continuing to promote BRICS and deepening its cooperation with China.
ExtensionOutrageous3 on
How do you convince the insane that gold has more value than the horeshit he is standing in?
Note, I don’t think Putin is irrational. He is very rational — but his goals for his nation is irrational.
6 Comments
Sure they’re not stupid?
“From Putin’s perspective, therefore, the stakes could hardly be higher and the benefits of continuing the war currently far outweigh the costs. This will only change if he finds himself confronted with the threat of military defeat in Ukraine and the very real prospect of a new Russian national collapse.”
This is a bleak outlook IMO. Trump and the EU will not escalate and as said in earlier in the article there is basically no internal unrest from the war. So it doesn’t appear any reason to stop the war for Putin is forthcoming.
Summary: He’s unleashed forces that he can’t control and he’s afraid of what will happen once the music stops.
Putin promised his people swift, decisive victory in Ukraine. Two-and-a-half years later, the war has decimated Russia’s population of military-age men as well as significant portions of its air force and navy (to the point where it has to ask *North Korea* for help), bolstered Europe and NATO’s alliance, and subjected it to ever-increasing sanctions. Anything less than a complete takeover of Ukraine—to include just keeping the territory they’ve stolen since 2023—would be seen as an unmitigated failure. Although I’m not sure what punishment Putin would suffer politically? He’s a dictator who murders anyone who dares to challenge him, unless we get into a *Richard II* situation where enough wealthy oligarchs rise up to overthrow him, with the assistance of the Russian military.
Apart from Putin’s personal arrogance and aggression, there are at least 2 things that I think make the deal offered difficult for Russia to sign off on.
The first is having to trust that a deal with Trump would be honored by Trump himself for a sustained period. He has not shown a capacity for consistency, eg in how he wields tariff and trade threats.
The second is the strategic geopolitical goal Trump has argued for is to make an alliance with Russia against China. Putin seems to have decided that such realignment would not be in Russia’s best interest. It would therefore be unlikely that any peace deal promising US / NATO restraint would be sustained in the context of Russia continuing to promote BRICS and deepening its cooperation with China.
How do you convince the insane that gold has more value than the horeshit he is standing in?
Note, I don’t think Putin is irrational. He is very rational — but his goals for his nation is irrational.