If she wins only one of these two states, I hope it’s the one where the winner is declared earlier. North Carolina was called much more quickly than Georgia even though Trump only won it by 1.1%.
riderfan3728 on
I think she’s unlikely to win North Carolina tbh. Georgia? Yeah I think she has a great shot but I saw Kemp & Trump are making up and will be doing joint events. I hope Trump starts attacking Kemp again but if he doesn’t & they do a lot of joint events, Kemp can convince enough Trump-skeptical Republicans to suck it up & vote Trump. Kamala HAS to run up the Rust Belt. Do a billion campaign events with Walz, Gretchen & Shapiro. Ignore the fuck out of Katie Hobbs when you come to Arizona because she’s disliked I think. But at this point i do think Trump is favored to win both Georgia & North Carolina.
PM_IF_YOU_LIKE_TRAPS on
Just praying we win enough votes it’s over and done
DrunkenAsparagus on
Don’t see what’s so weird about that. Other than 2020, NC has consistently voted to the left of GA since the 90s. They also elect more Democrats to statewide office, even after the Blue Dogs went away.
This touches on a general annoyance I have with online political discussion. People treat the conventional wisdom, status quo, and modal predictions of the future as all interchangeable and completely inevitable. People just cannot accept that strange things happening is not only likely, but inevitable when you do enough draws.
Nate Silver is really good at explaining all this. It’s basically his job, but I think people push back on it because they hate uncertainty. That’s doubly true for stuff like politics.
CurtisLeow on
I just don’t want a repeat of 2016, where the Democratic candidate loses multiple key battleground states by a tiny margin.
6 Comments
Yes
If she wins only one of these two states, I hope it’s the one where the winner is declared earlier. North Carolina was called much more quickly than Georgia even though Trump only won it by 1.1%.
I think she’s unlikely to win North Carolina tbh. Georgia? Yeah I think she has a great shot but I saw Kemp & Trump are making up and will be doing joint events. I hope Trump starts attacking Kemp again but if he doesn’t & they do a lot of joint events, Kemp can convince enough Trump-skeptical Republicans to suck it up & vote Trump. Kamala HAS to run up the Rust Belt. Do a billion campaign events with Walz, Gretchen & Shapiro. Ignore the fuck out of Katie Hobbs when you come to Arizona because she’s disliked I think. But at this point i do think Trump is favored to win both Georgia & North Carolina.
Just praying we win enough votes it’s over and done
Don’t see what’s so weird about that. Other than 2020, NC has consistently voted to the left of GA since the 90s. They also elect more Democrats to statewide office, even after the Blue Dogs went away.
This touches on a general annoyance I have with online political discussion. People treat the conventional wisdom, status quo, and modal predictions of the future as all interchangeable and completely inevitable. People just cannot accept that strange things happening is not only likely, but inevitable when you do enough draws.
Nate Silver is really good at explaining all this. It’s basically his job, but I think people push back on it because they hate uncertainty. That’s doubly true for stuff like politics.
I just don’t want a repeat of 2016, where the Democratic candidate loses multiple key battleground states by a tiny margin.