[Despite the success of the Kursk offensive] a breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week has triggered a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation.
Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk taking several nearby towns this week and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from prepared defensive positions.
Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group.
Satellite imagery analysed by open-source investigators at the Finland-based Black Bird Group shows Russian forces now just 8km from Pokrovsk. In response, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in the area.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern edge of Pokrovsk “a complete defensive failure”.
“It’s not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on Telegram. “The problem lies with those who make decisions for these soldiers,” he added, pointing to Ukraine’s leadership.
[…]
Ukrainian troops this week pulled out of Novohrodivka, 8km south-east of Pokrovsk. The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, said the withdrawal indicated a shortage of defensive resources, despite Pokrovsk’s importance as a logistical hub.
Mariana Bezuhla, an MP and member of the defence committee in parliament, shared photos on Facebook from a visit last week to the frontline near Novohrodivka. She claimed they showed the path to Pokrovsk wide open.
Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and was working “to strengthen the defence of our troops in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other material and technical means”.
[…]
In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since August 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry that monitors frontline movements.
“There is complete chaos,” said Deep State’s Roman Pohorilyi pointing to the fall of key towns such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.
[…]
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive.
“Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units,” Lee said.
Soldiers who were mobilised this summer following the Ukrainian government’s new conscription laws meant to fill Kyiv’s dwindling ranks have been sent into the fray with little training or experience.
[…]
Soldiers in artillery units near Pokrovsk also highlighted a deficit in shells and a severe mismatch in firepower compared to Russian forces.
“Our shells are running out. We just don’t have enough,” said an artillery commander, noting that many resources had been redirected north to Kursk. For about the past month, his unit has had one shell for every six to eight fired by the Russians.
[…]
Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier currently on the eastern front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not just Pokrovsk”.
He cited “a complex of internal reasons: from the planting of flowers instead of fortifications to the lack of understanding on the part of high command of the problems evident to every soldier in the trenches”.
“What can be done for Pokrovsk?” he asked rhetorically. “Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the town will soon cease to exist.”
Frontelligence said the Ukrainian leadership could yet shore up the frontline by deploying new brigades or repositioning forces from other areas. But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.
!ping Ukraine
hypsignathus on
Certainly the incursion was a risky move given Ukraine’s limited resources.
Sounds like we (NATO nations and informal allies) should get Ukraine more resources asap.
JaceFlores on
I’m not surprised. Russian progress has been proven to have sped up in August after Ukraine rerouted its best troops and a lot of materiel to invade Kursk (which I think was done knowing it wouldn’t change the situation around Pokrovsk for the better). The troops there are are struggling a lot with coordination and communication both between each other and in the high command. Pokrovsk will likely become the frontline in a matter of a week or two if things don’t change. Ukraine still has options, but unsurprisingly the failures of the past year in Ukraine and the West, heightened by the Kursk gamble, are continuing to to mature and neither Ukraine or the West seem paaaaarticularly bothered?
3 Comments
Archived version: [https://archive.fo/qtl92](https://archive.fo/qtl92)
Summary:
[Despite the success of the Kursk offensive] a breach in the frontline in the strategically important Donetsk region this week has triggered a backlash against the leadership in Kyiv, with critics arguing Ukraine’s positions were weakened by the redeployment of thousands of battle-hardened Ukrainian troops to the Kursk operation.
Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk taking several nearby towns this week and forcing undermanned Ukrainian units to retreat from prepared defensive positions.
Pokrovsk is one of two key rail and road junctions in the Donetsk region and its loss would threaten the entire region’s logistics for Ukraine’s military, according to Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analytical group.
Satellite imagery analysed by open-source investigators at the Finland-based Black Bird Group shows Russian forces now just 8km from Pokrovsk. In response, local authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in the area.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern edge of Pokrovsk “a complete defensive failure”.
“It’s not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions,” he wrote on Telegram. “The problem lies with those who make decisions for these soldiers,” he added, pointing to Ukraine’s leadership.
[…]
Ukrainian troops this week pulled out of Novohrodivka, 8km south-east of Pokrovsk. The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Kyiv-based security think-tank, said the withdrawal indicated a shortage of defensive resources, despite Pokrovsk’s importance as a logistical hub.
Mariana Bezuhla, an MP and member of the defence committee in parliament, shared photos on Facebook from a visit last week to the frontline near Novohrodivka. She claimed they showed the path to Pokrovsk wide open.
“The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. There was practically no Ukrainian army in the once 20,000-strong city,” she wrote in a scathing [post](https://www.facebook.com/bezuhlamariana/posts/pfbid0FTPM3XLua6rbj5AGM59WnH3ejsnSKwbE8eyWUawGD2mMenmXyFdJnBrKYxxTmtKnl).
Gen Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and was working “to strengthen the defence of our troops in the most difficult areas of the front, to provide the brigades with a sufficient amount of ammunition and other material and technical means”.
[…]
In fact, Russian forces have advanced more rapidly in Donetsk since August 6 compared with the previous months, according to several military analysts, including Deep State, a Ukrainian group with close ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry that monitors frontline movements.
“There is complete chaos,” said Deep State’s Roman Pohorilyi pointing to the fall of key towns such as Novohrodivka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk.
[…]
Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, attributed the Russian gains to a shortage of experienced Ukrainian infantry and the diversion of resources to the Kursk offensive.
“Ukraine committed reserves to Kursk, leaving fewer options to plug gaps elsewhere. Some of the more experienced brigades have been replaced by newer, less experienced units,” Lee said.
Soldiers who were mobilised this summer following the Ukrainian government’s new conscription laws meant to fill Kyiv’s dwindling ranks have been sent into the fray with little training or experience.
[…]
Soldiers in artillery units near Pokrovsk also highlighted a deficit in shells and a severe mismatch in firepower compared to Russian forces.
“Our shells are running out. We just don’t have enough,” said an artillery commander, noting that many resources had been redirected north to Kursk. For about the past month, his unit has had one shell for every six to eight fired by the Russians.
[…]
Stanislav Aseyev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier currently on the eastern front, warned of the possible “destruction of the entire southern group of forces in the region, not just Pokrovsk”.
He cited “a complex of internal reasons: from the planting of flowers instead of fortifications to the lack of understanding on the part of high command of the problems evident to every soldier in the trenches”.
“What can be done for Pokrovsk?” he asked rhetorically. “Unfortunately, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think the town will soon cease to exist.”
Frontelligence said the Ukrainian leadership could yet shore up the frontline by deploying new brigades or repositioning forces from other areas. But if Pokrovsk were to fall, it could pave the way for Russian forces to push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control further.
!ping Ukraine
Certainly the incursion was a risky move given Ukraine’s limited resources.
Sounds like we (NATO nations and informal allies) should get Ukraine more resources asap.
I’m not surprised. Russian progress has been proven to have sped up in August after Ukraine rerouted its best troops and a lot of materiel to invade Kursk (which I think was done knowing it wouldn’t change the situation around Pokrovsk for the better). The troops there are are struggling a lot with coordination and communication both between each other and in the high command. Pokrovsk will likely become the frontline in a matter of a week or two if things don’t change. Ukraine still has options, but unsurprisingly the failures of the past year in Ukraine and the West, heightened by the Kursk gamble, are continuing to to mature and neither Ukraine or the West seem paaaaarticularly bothered?