* Over the past two decades, Ontario and British Columbia have experienced significant deterioration in middle-class housing affordability for several reasons, the primary being a combination of housing shortages and the global secular decline in real interest rates, which acted as an accelerant.
* The supply-demand imbalance at the heart of the shortage was the result of governments enacting slow-growth housing policies alongside fast-growth population growth policies.
* In 2024, the federal government enacted sweeping reforms to lower population growth, and now British Columbia and Ontario, along with almost all of the rest of Canada, are experiencing nearly no net population growth.
* Not surprisingly, rents are falling in both provinces.
* Alberta is the outlier, which is experiencing lower rents and robust population growth. This population growth, however, is being matched with substantial growth in the housing stock.
* The experience in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta shows that both supply and demand matter when it comes to housing affordability.
1 Comment
* Over the past two decades, Ontario and British Columbia have experienced significant deterioration in middle-class housing affordability for several reasons, the primary being a combination of housing shortages and the global secular decline in real interest rates, which acted as an accelerant.
* The supply-demand imbalance at the heart of the shortage was the result of governments enacting slow-growth housing policies alongside fast-growth population growth policies.
* In 2024, the federal government enacted sweeping reforms to lower population growth, and now British Columbia and Ontario, along with almost all of the rest of Canada, are experiencing nearly no net population growth.
* Not surprisingly, rents are falling in both provinces.
* Alberta is the outlier, which is experiencing lower rents and robust population growth. This population growth, however, is being matched with substantial growth in the housing stock.
* The experience in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta shows that both supply and demand matter when it comes to housing affordability.
Further reading:
[Toronto condo market in “free fall,” says minister Robertson](https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/toronto-condo-market-is-in-free-fall-federal-housing-minister-says/article_66c26722-1f22-4b28-bf95-3e98f2e02159.html) – Toronto Star
[Renters need to make over $78,000 to have affordable rent in Vancouver, Toronto: CCPA](https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate/article/vancouver-and-toronto-top-unaffordability-list-for-renters-based-on-rental-wage/) – CTV
[Slowing housing market will trigger construction job losses, Ontario builders group says | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-construction-job-losses-1.7623424)
[Halving DCs Won’t Survive the Political Math](https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/halving-dcs-wont-survive-the-political) – Missing Middle Initiative
!ping Can&YIMBY