This is fairly numbers heavy but I am not sure if the numbers are well-grounded and if there’s any additional but missing context.
So i posted this here so that someone who knows better can check the numbers, especially for the required energy buildout and provide any relevant context.
!ping AI&ECO&GET-LIT
Firm-Examination2134 on
Basically: the AI buildout at the speed of current inbesntekr is possible, but only if AGI comes soon (before 2030), if not not only will the bubble pop, but it all but guarantees that China wins the AI race and dominates every aspect of the global economy
So the two options are either feed the bubble hoping AGI is around the corner or bubble popping, slower growth and Chinese dominance
I think they aren’t looking enough at how longer time lines make countries with huge electriricu growth like India also more powerful relative to the US, considering Chinese AI is open source and on the tails of the best SOTA models
And I think that the advantages they give China are very conservative too, since they can leverage robotics (which would impact the labor shortage section of the article) so I think that the breakeven point for when AGI benefits China more than the US is sooner than 2032
But in general, this is the reason why the economy seems geared for a total revolution
2 Comments
This is fairly numbers heavy but I am not sure if the numbers are well-grounded and if there’s any additional but missing context.
So i posted this here so that someone who knows better can check the numbers, especially for the required energy buildout and provide any relevant context.
!ping AI&ECO&GET-LIT
Basically: the AI buildout at the speed of current inbesntekr is possible, but only if AGI comes soon (before 2030), if not not only will the bubble pop, but it all but guarantees that China wins the AI race and dominates every aspect of the global economy
So the two options are either feed the bubble hoping AGI is around the corner or bubble popping, slower growth and Chinese dominance
I think they aren’t looking enough at how longer time lines make countries with huge electriricu growth like India also more powerful relative to the US, considering Chinese AI is open source and on the tails of the best SOTA models
And I think that the advantages they give China are very conservative too, since they can leverage robotics (which would impact the labor shortage section of the article) so I think that the breakeven point for when AGI benefits China more than the US is sooner than 2032
But in general, this is the reason why the economy seems geared for a total revolution