Polymarket has Mamdani at over 90%, bouncing between 70-96% since he won the Democratic primary in July. In a city this blue, that's basically game over.
This matters because NYC is about to elect its first democratic socialist mayor – 8+ million people, $100B+ budget, global financial center. This is the biggest test yet of whether progressive policies can work at scale.
The housing stuff makes me nervous. Mamdani's pushed aggressive rent control and been skeptical of market-rate development, which… the evidence on rent control isn't great. But if he actually upzones and streamlines permitting, that could be good?
Here's the real issue: Trump's going to have a field day with this. "NYC just elected a SOCIALIST" writes the attack ads itself, and it doesn't matter if Mamdani governs pragmatically – the optics are political gold for Republicans heading into 2026.
Either way, gonna be one hell of a case study.
Posted by Acceptable_Fact423
11 Comments
BTW – I am not at all shilling for Cuomo. The allegations against him make me feel uneasy, to say the least.
Nothing is over until they count the votes. Cuomo was polling a similar amount ahead prior to the primary. So we know polls aren’t super accurate.
https://preview.redd.it/pn36ye4exvxf1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e289e5c9ae97962eeb34fc3f6e57695b152e165
Funny thread given that Polymarket just tweeted this. (It’s also just clearly not true that his odds have “collapsed”).
Also, DeBlasio was pretty far left in terms of his anti-capitalist views.
Unironically based.
Isn’t it a bit early for ‘Democrats in disarray’ posting?
I live in NYC and ranked Lander first and Zohran second in the primary. FWIW his tone has definitely moderated some and I see him governing as a social democrat much more than a democratic socialist. I think he is (rightfully) intimidated by the scope of the challenge ahead.
Re: optics, it’s not my job as a voter to think about how a candidate for office to run my city, which has more of a history of socialist governance than anywhere in the country, is going to play on Fox News. (For the record, Mamdani won a lot of Trump voters in the primary and has been excellent in national TV interviews.) If the national Democratic apparatus wanted to keep Zohran out of office they shouldn’t have thrown their weight behind disgraced sex pest Andrew Cuomo.
Hot take, the Scottish Teens are there for entertainment, not hard hitting data.
I’m not that keen on him but what were the alternatives? Cuomo the sex pest or Adams the criminal basically.
EDIT: All that being said, Adams actually introduced garbage bins to the city, it’s completely nuts that they never did it before.
What about city council races? As people realize that Zohran is pretty much a shoo-in, that may steer towards more moderate city council candidates.
Or is Zohran benefiting from the outsider paradox, wherein people are also underestimating his chances of winning?
Unfortunately Mamdanis policies will fail miserably, and Republicans will have ammunition for years to come.
Republicans have been calling every bog standard Democrat a socialist for as long as I’ve been alive. Not sure this is gonna stick as much as people think, especially if NYC ends up doing well in the long run.