Canada’s GDP rebounds in third quarter, but trade numbers mask broader weakness

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    >The Canadian economy rebounded sharply in the third quarter, although much of the upside surprise was driven by a swing in imports and exports that masked underlying weakness in domestic demand.

    >Canada’s real gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6 per cent in the third quarter, Statistics Canada reported Friday. That follows a downwardly revised 1.8 per cent contraction in the second quarter.

    >This blew past Bay Street expectations and helped Canada avoid two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, or what some analysts refer to as a “technical recession.” However, the strong headline result had more to do with idiosyncratic trade numbers than a broad-based improvement in the economic climate.

    >Meanwhile, Statscan’s flash estimate showed a GDP contraction in October, suggesting the Canadian economy is struggling to maintain momentum in the face of continued uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

    >While the details of the report were mixed, the strong headline number reinforced Bay Street expectations that the Bank of Canada will hold interest rates steady at its next decision on Dec. 10. The central bank indicated last month that it has likely finished its monetary policy easing cycle.

    !ping Can

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