Medián is the oldest pollster in Hungary, founded in 1989 by Endre Hann, who is still leading it. Their seat projections yesterday came out, suggesting that Tisza might win between 138-143 seats, a historic record that even fidesz never managed to do. Along with them 21KK, the other popular and highly regarded independent measures a record Tisza supermajority, while the other opposition pollsters generally measure between 125-135.
133 seats are needed for 2/3 supermajority. 100 seats for simple majority. In total there are 199 seats.
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What will happen if opposition wins 60% of vote but Orban retains a majority because of gerrymandering? I don’t know enough about the system to say this could be a possibility, but I do know that the lines have been drawn to make it very hard for Fidesz to lose.
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Medián is the oldest pollster in Hungary, founded in 1989 by Endre Hann, who is still leading it. Their seat projections yesterday came out, suggesting that Tisza might win between 138-143 seats, a historic record that even fidesz never managed to do. Along with them 21KK, the other popular and highly regarded independent measures a record Tisza supermajority, while the other opposition pollsters generally measure between 125-135.
Total population:
|Tisza|Fidesz|other parties/non-partisan|
|:-|:-|:-|
|48%|30%|22%|
Seat projection:
|Tisza (EPP)|Fidesz (PATRIOTS)|Mi Hazánk (ESN)|National Roma minority|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|138-143 (141)|49-55 (52)|5-6 (5)|0-1 (1)|
133 seats are needed for 2/3 supermajority. 100 seats for simple majority. In total there are 199 seats.
What will happen if opposition wins 60% of vote but Orban retains a majority because of gerrymandering? I don’t know enough about the system to say this could be a possibility, but I do know that the lines have been drawn to make it very hard for Fidesz to lose.
TRUTHNUKE