Texas house prices are forecast to fall in 31 cities (what happens when you build housing)

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Texas House Prices Are Forecast to Fall in 31 Cities
Published Jan 06, 2025 at 9:32 AM EST
By Giulia Carbonaro
US News Reporter

Home prices are likely to fall in 31 metropolitan areas across Texas throughout 2025, according to a recent report by Norada Real Estate Investments. These include the capital, Austin, which is expected to see home prices fall by 1.8 percent by January 31 and by 0.4 percent by October 31.

The real estate investment firm expects the Texas housing market to experience a “moderate slowdown” over the next two years as it transitions from the strong growth of recent years toward “a more balanced market.”
Why It Matters

Housing experts are looking at Texas as one of the housing markets in the country, together with Florida, most likely to experience significant price drops this year as demand cools down at the same time as new inventory comes in.

Both states have built a lot more housing than the rest of the nation in the past couple of years as they faced booming demand during the pandemic. As in-migration has slowed down significantly since the COVID-19 years, demand for housing has slowed down; at the same time, stubbornly high mortgage rates are keeping many buyers out of the market.
What To Know

By January 31, home prices are expected to fall in the following 51 Texas metro areas:

Abilene, -0.1 percent
Alice, -2.4 percent
Amarillo, -0.2 percent
Andrews, -0.3 percent
Athens, -0.7 percent
Austin, -1.8 percent
Bay City, -0.3 percent
Beaumont, -0.7 percent
Beeville, -1.7 percent
Big Spring, -3.7 percent
Borger, -0.6 percent
Brenham, -0.8 percent
Brownsville, -0.2 percent
Brownwood, -0.3 percent
College Station, -0.4 percent
Corpus Christi, -0.8 percent
Dallas, -0.7 percent
Eagle Pass, -0.2 percent
El Campo, -1.1 percent
Fredericksburg, -0.9 percent
Houston, -0.6 percent
Huntsville, -0.9 percent
Kerrville, -0.4 percent
Killeen, -0.9 percent
Kingsville, -0.8 percent
Lamesa, -0.7 percent
Laredo, -0.5 percent
Levelland, -0.8 percent
Longview, -0.2 percent
Lubbock, -1 percent
Lufkin, -0.7 percent
Mineral Wells, -0.2 percent
Odessa, -0.6 percent
Pampa, -1.1 percent
Paris, -0.7 percent
Pecos, -3.5 percent
Plainview, -2 percent
Port Lavaca, -0.4 percent
Raymondville, -1.4 percent
Rio Grande City, -1.4 percent
San Antonio, -0.7 percent
Sherman, -0.4 percent
Snyder, -0.9 percent
Sulphur Springs, -1.4 percent
Sweetwater, -2.6 percent
Texarkana, -0.8 percent
Uvalde, -0.6 percent
Vernon, -2.2 percent
Victoria, -0.4 percent
Waco, -0.5 percent
Zapata, -2.6 percent

By October 31, Norada Real Estate Investments expects home prices to change in the following 31 Texas metro areas:

Alice, -7.5 percent
Andrews, -1.9 percent
Austin, -0.4 percent
Bay City, -0.8 percent
Beaumont, -3.1 percent
Beeville, -5.6 percent
Big Spring, -8.1 percent
Borger, -2.5 percent
Corpus Christi, -1.4 percent
Dumas, -1.4 percent
El Campo, -2 percent
Huntsville, -0.4 percent
Kingsville, -1.9 percent
Lamesa, -4.5 percent
Laredo, -1 percent
Levelland, -2.5 percent
Midland, -1.9 percent
Odessa, -3 percent
Pampa, -2 percent
Pecos, -9.5 percent
Plainview, -3.3 percent
Port Lavaca, -0.5 percent
Raymondville, -6.1 percent
Rio Grande City, -3.6 percent
Snyder, -3 percent
Sulphur Springs, -0.5 percent
Sweetwater, -6.9 percent
Texarkana, -0.9 percent
Uvalde, -1.4 percent
Vernon, -4.3 percent
Zapata, -7.2 percent

What People Are Saying

Marco Santarelli of Norada Real Estate Investments wrote in the report: “The Texas housing market currently presents a mixed picture. While the third quarter ended on a positive note with an increase in home sales, other indicators are showing a bit of a slow-down after the superheated market of the past few years.

“I believe that the Texas housing market will see a more balanced, and somewhat slower growth trajectory over the next couple of years.”

Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek: “Buyers in the weaker Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas may be able to negotiate the best deal and have the most selection [this year]. In other markets, inventory will be lower and there will be less room to negotiate.”

Nick Gerli, real estate analyst and CEO of Reventure App, previously told Newsweek: “Reventure is forecasting home price declines in 2025 in Texas and Florida especially. Don’t be surprised if price reductions cluster in suburban and rural areas, where the homebuilders are most active.”
What’s Next

Some areas in Texas, especially those which have seen the biggest booms during the pandemic years, are likely to become a buyer’s market this year due to falling prices and growing supply.

Norada Real Estate Investments’ Santarelli said that, despite potential price declines across many of its metro areas, the Lone Star State is unlikely to experience a housing market crash.

“While we are moving into a more balanced market, and some areas are expected to see minor price declines, the overall fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong,” he said. “The population growth, job market, and demand for housing all support a stable market, rather than a dramatic drop.”