Key Points and Summary:
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Russia’s war economy is starting to show strain. As Ukraine’s drones hit targets deep inside Russia, the Kremlin is scrambling to plug mounting fiscal gaps with VAT hikes, new excise taxes and shrinking enlistment bonuses.
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Oil and gas revenues, a quarter of GDP, are falling under tighter U.S. sanctions and quiet pressure on buyers in China and India.
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A niche Chinese supplier now dominates key additives for tyres and lubricants, creating a potential choke point.
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Growth is stalling, inflation is high and regions are in deficit. Western policymakers must decide whether to exploit these weaknesses or accept Putin’s story of endless endurance.
Posted by Moonagi
4 Comments
Putin is between a rock and hard place. Either he continues the war and his economy breaks. Or he stops the war and his economy breaks from spending drawing down.
Almost becoming a meme the amount of times people have predicted Russian economy about to collapse.
Ukraine earnestly tackling its manpower shortage would go a massive way in exploiting these economic issues. Slow the Russians at the frontline and let them expend massive amounts of men and capital for minimal gains
Europe should finally seize the frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Close the Danish straight, allow Ukraine to shut down the Drujba pipeline.
The cowardice will come back to bite them.