The Conservative Party of Canada has started the candidate nomination process across the country, according to an internal memo.

Ottawa is buzzing with election speculation as Elections Canada lines up offices and recruits staff, Liberals poach candidates and MPs from opposition parties, and the Conservatives have formally launched nomination contests.

“In a minority government context, the election could be called at any time,” wrote Clare MacDonald, an Elections Canada media spokesperson, in an email to The Hill Times. “Given that under the Canada Elections Act, returning officers must provide services to electors upon the issuance of the writs of election, Elections Canada makes every effort to identify ahead of time locations that could serve as local offices or polling places in the event of a snap election.”

“Elections Canada’s hiring is ongoing for some returning officer positions and some positions at our headquarters, but is part of the normal electoral cycle,” she wrote.

“Only once an election period begins do returning officers hire the majority of their staff and the workers who deliver the vote in their riding.”

The average age of a minority government in Canada is about 19 months. The last election happened only nine months ago, but one could be called at any time.

The speculation about a potential snap election began following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s (Nepean, Ont.) Davos speech on Jan. 20, which triggered an overwhelmingly positive response from Canadians. Some polls now suggest the Liberals are at between four and 15 points ahead of the Conservatives.

Also, the government’s announcement late last month that it would rename the GST tax credit, now called the “Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit,” added more fuel to the speculation that the Liberals are laying the groundwork for the election. The initiative will provide a 25-per-cent increase to the tax credit over the next five years, and a one-time increase of 50 per cent this year.

In the last election on April 28, 2025, the Liberals won 169 seats, the Conservatives 144, the Bloc Québécois 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. The Liberals at the time were three seats short of a majority.

According to a recent [poll ](file://localhost/Users/editorial/Downloads/Full%20Report%20(January%2030,%202026).pdf)by Ekos Research, if an election were to occur now, the Liberals would receive the support of 44.4 per cent of decided or leaning voters, compared to 29.5 per cent for the Conservatives. The poll suggested that NDP support is at 13.8 per cent, the Bloc Québécois 5.3 per cent, and the Greens at four per cent. About nine per cent of Canadians said they were undecided. The poll of 1,453 respondents was conducted between Jan. 8-30, and had a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Before that, a Leger poll suggested that if an election were to happen now, the Liberals would get 47 per cent support, the Conservative 38 per cent, the Bloc six per cent, the NDP five per cent, and the Greens two per cent. The poll of 1,611 Canadians was conducted from Jan. 23 to Jan. 26.

A Nanos Research poll published on Jan. 30 states that Liberal support is at 38.9 per cent, the Conservatives have 35.2 per cent, the NDP have 12.5 per cent, the Bloc are at 9.2 per cent, and the Greens are at 2.5 per cent.

Floor-crossing rumours continue from both right and left

Although Liberal MP Marcus Powlowski (Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Ont.) denied that the government has plans to go to the polls any time soon, he also said opposition parties are being “obstructionists” in House committees, and that if this continues and the government concludes it cannot carry out its legislative work, that could become grounds for an early election. Powlowski declined to say how long the government would take to make that determination one way or the other.

“Only if we are unable to do what we need to do in terms of governing, in terms of getting projects going,” would there be a reason for going to the polls, said Powlowski.

“I hope that’s not the case, and I don’t think that’s the government’s intention. I mean, we do want to do things. This is an ambitious government. We have someone in Mark Carney who comes from a different mould, who expects things to get done. We want to get things done. We’re elected to get things done, and as long as we’re getting things done, I think we want to continue.”

Liberal MPs interviewed for this article said they have not officially received any signal that the government plans to go to the polls, but, based on personal assessments, they said, senior Liberals responsible for election readiness are looking at different potential election scenarios. They said opposition obstruction in committee work would be a key factor, adding that senior Liberals are also mindful of the potential backlash of calling an early election.

Amid this, rumours are still circulating that some MPs from the Conservatives or the NDP could cross the floor to join the Liberals. Some Liberal insiders say that if this does not materialize, the likelihood of an early election could grow even stronger.

On Feb. 3, the Liberals recruited Ontario NDP deputy leader Doly Begum to run federally in Scarborough-Southwest, Ont., following the appointment of the riding’s incumbent MP Bill Blair’s as high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Begum currently holds the same riding provincially.

The Hill Times learned back in September that the Liberals were seeking to recruit Begum, though—through an Ontario NDP spokesperson—she denied at the time that she intended to run federally for the Liberals.

“Doly is the deputy leader of the Official Opposition/Ontario NDP and committed to proudly serving the people of Scarborough-Southwest at Queen’s Park as their MPP. There’s no truth to the rumours about her seeking a federal seat,” a spokesperson told The Hill Times on Sept. 23.

Even before the last election, Team Carney reached out to high-profile Conservatives and New Democrats to recruit star candidates.

Since the election, two then-Conservative MPs—Chris d’Entremont (Acadie Annapolis, N.S.) and Michael Ma (Markham-Unionville, Ont.)—have joined the Liberals. Also, two Liberals—Chrystia Freeland and Blair—have stepped down for other opportunities. Freeland is now an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“The deputy leader of the provincial party for the NDP, coming to Mark Carney, is the strongest message you can send to progressives that this is a government that is willing to work with anyone from Michael Ma to Doly Begum,” said a Liberal MP who spoke on background in order to speak freely.

“Doly Begum to Michael Ma: that is the full spectrum that a prime minister could ever attempt to achieve, and he’s been able to do it. That’s unbelievable.”

Conservative memo confirms nomination process has begun

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said that based on Canada’s political calendar, it would be strategically smart for the Liberals to call an early election. He argued that trade negotiations with the United States are not going well, and that even a deal with U.S. President Donald Trump would likely fall short. Nanos added that Trump’s prominence in the news tends to benefit the Liberals, and said it would make sense to hold a federal election in this country ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November. He also pointed to the Quebec election scheduled for October and the possibility of a subsequent independence referendum, and the potential for a referendum on Alberta separation this year.

“There are a whole bunch of moving parts that make it tricky [and] politically risky for the government that they might want to get ahead of,” said Nanos. 

He said that the Liberals would need to avoid losing the progressive vote to win the next election, arguing that a split between the Liberals and the NDP would benefit the Conservatives. He said that the NDP is currently polling at about 12 per cent, but he said that support in the 17-to-20-per-cent range would create three-way splits between the Liberals, Conservatives and the NDP, which would benefit the Conservatives. Recruiting candidates such as Begum, Nanos said, signals that the Carney-led Liberals are centrist while remaining acceptable to progressive voters, including card-carrying New Democrats.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer for Pollara Strategic Insights, agreed: “Maybe [this] is a bit of a soft message to NDP voters out there that, ‘Hey, this is not a Progressive Conservative government,’ as sometimes people would like to call them. He’s brought over a few Conservatives, but, bringing over someone from the NDP and someone else who’s a bit more progressive is a signal that there is space in the Carney tent for people [that are] not just who are leaving the Conservatives … [but] who are leaving the NDP as well.”

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party sent out an internal memo on Feb. 4, which was obtained by The Hill Times, to all regional organizers, desk officers and electoral district associations. The memo states that the nomination process has started, and some closing notices have been sent to some ridings.

“Individuals interested in pursuing the candidate nomination and requesting an application should be
referred to your Regional Organizer,” wrote political operations department in the memo. “In order to protect impartiality and fairness, access to CIMS will be limited during this open nomination
process.”

Some Conservative sources told The Hill Times that the party has informed a number of ridings in the Greater Toronto Area, among other regions that the closing date for nominations is Feb. 25.