From the article (which has links to sources I had trouble carrying over):
**Business and Finance Believes the Trump Slump Has Arrived**
The Federal Reserve slashed its expected 2025 GDP growth rate to an anemic 1.7%. The Fed also projected “weaker growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation than they had anticipated in December. Moreover, nearly all officials judged that if their forecasts were to be proven wrong, it would be in the direction of even softer growth, more joblessness and firmer price growth.”
The S&P 500 is down 6% since Trump took office, and the market has performed worse in Trump’s opening two months than any president dating back to Gerald Ford, with the exception of George W. Bush and the dotcom bubble.
Small business confidence is plummeting. Only one-in-three small business owners expect the economy to improve—a drop of 10 points from the month before.4 The number of businessowners who think it’s a good time to expand their business has dropped the most since the early days of COVID.
Retail sales are stagnant with “spending last month declin(ing) the most at department stores (-1.7%), restaurants and bars (-1.5%) and at gasoline stations (-1%).”
Trump is set to saddle the United States with trillions more dollars of debt. New studies show that higher debt increases inflation in both the short and long run.
Tariffs trigger a slump. Sustained tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to reduce economic output by 0.4%.
**Americans Are Feeling the Pain of the Trump Slump**
Voters’ view of Trump’s handling of the economy has already dipped 11 points. Today, “48% of Americans say the economy is getting worse, up from 37% at the start of Donald Trump’s second term; only 19% say it is getting better.”
Economic optimism has fallen 14 points from Inauguration Day, from +12 to -2 on whether the economy will be good or poor one year from now.
Americans believe a recession is imminent, with 71% expecting a recession with the next 12 months.
Americans believe inflation is back. Trump delivered the largest month-over-month leap in long-term inflation expectations in over 30 years.
Consumer confidence across all party affiliations dropped by double digits in one month. Consumer sentiment is down with “Republicans post(ing) a sizable 10% decline in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.”
Credit card debt and delinquency rates are rising among all income levels, have shot past pre-pandemic levels, and are approaching rates unseen since the financial crisis.
Tariffs will wreck family budgets, costing American families $1,600-$2,000 per year. Working- and middle-class families will bear a bigger burden than those at the top.
1 Comment
From the article (which has links to sources I had trouble carrying over):
**Business and Finance Believes the Trump Slump Has Arrived**
The Federal Reserve slashed its expected 2025 GDP growth rate to an anemic 1.7%. The Fed also projected “weaker growth, higher unemployment and higher inflation than they had anticipated in December. Moreover, nearly all officials judged that if their forecasts were to be proven wrong, it would be in the direction of even softer growth, more joblessness and firmer price growth.”
The S&P 500 is down 6% since Trump took office, and the market has performed worse in Trump’s opening two months than any president dating back to Gerald Ford, with the exception of George W. Bush and the dotcom bubble.
Small business confidence is plummeting. Only one-in-three small business owners expect the economy to improve—a drop of 10 points from the month before.4 The number of businessowners who think it’s a good time to expand their business has dropped the most since the early days of COVID.
Retail sales are stagnant with “spending last month declin(ing) the most at department stores (-1.7%), restaurants and bars (-1.5%) and at gasoline stations (-1%).”
Trump is set to saddle the United States with trillions more dollars of debt. New studies show that higher debt increases inflation in both the short and long run.
Tariffs trigger a slump. Sustained tariffs on Canada and Mexico are expected to reduce economic output by 0.4%.
**Americans Are Feeling the Pain of the Trump Slump**
Voters’ view of Trump’s handling of the economy has already dipped 11 points. Today, “48% of Americans say the economy is getting worse, up from 37% at the start of Donald Trump’s second term; only 19% say it is getting better.”
Economic optimism has fallen 14 points from Inauguration Day, from +12 to -2 on whether the economy will be good or poor one year from now.
Americans believe a recession is imminent, with 71% expecting a recession with the next 12 months.
Americans believe inflation is back. Trump delivered the largest month-over-month leap in long-term inflation expectations in over 30 years.
Consumer confidence across all party affiliations dropped by double digits in one month. Consumer sentiment is down with “Republicans post(ing) a sizable 10% decline in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.”
Credit card debt and delinquency rates are rising among all income levels, have shot past pre-pandemic levels, and are approaching rates unseen since the financial crisis.
Tariffs will wreck family budgets, costing American families $1,600-$2,000 per year. Working- and middle-class families will bear a bigger burden than those at the top.