US President Donald Trump ostensibly launched his global tariff campaign to “make America great again.” But according to French historian Emmanuel Todd, Trump’s actions are better explained in terms of the US’ humiliating defeat to China and Russia.
In his 1976 book “The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere,” Todd accurately predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse 15 years later using longitudinal statistical data such as infant mortality rates.
Todd’s book “The Defeat of the West” (“La Defaite de l’Occident” in the original French), published in January 2024, contains arguments that will be shocking for Koreans who have long taken American hegemony for granted.
The best physical manifestation of America’s defeat is the war in Ukraine. After the war began in late February 2022, the US and the EU made a carefully coordinated response.
Considering that Russia’s economy comes to around 3.3% of the West (US, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea), the calculation was that heavy sanctions against Russia coupled with support for Ukraine would quickly lead to Russia raising the white flag.
The reality was different. Russia evaded sanctions with the help of China, India and the “Global South,” avoiding the economic collapse the West hoped for. There were several ups and downs, but the war has progressed in Russia’s favor, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected Trump’s deal involving a one-month ceasefire.
Why did this happen? Todd looks beyond the war and to the “fundamental changes” that have been occurring within American society. The West underestimated Russia and ignored the hollowing out of the American economy. A robust manufacturing base is critical to winning a war. Todd said he was shocked when he saw that the US couldn’t supply shells or anything to Ukraine with confidence. Russia currently produces around 250,000 shells a month, but the US has set its annual “objective” for this year at 100,000. As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2% of American college graduates — in Russia, it’s over three times that, at 23.4%.
Todd says that while Trump is attempting to revive the American manufacturing sector, it will be impossible. Drunk on the dominance of the dollar, the US has had no need to accumulate foreign currency for the sake of imports. The country’s faith-based social ethics which were part of what made American society robust during its golden era, have now collapsed. It’s now an empty country full of demoralized nihilists. The Trump factor is not a cause but a symptom.
FuckFashMods on
This is a weird article, and idk if I agree with some of it. However….
>As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2% of American college graduates — in Russia, it’s over three times that, at 23.4%.
How can Russia possibly sustain 1/4th if everyone being an engineer. That is really wild.
RTSBasebuilder on
My opinion is that a lot of Americans are hardcoded into supporting autarky.
They think free trade has nothing to do with rising tides lifting all boats or increases material wealth, prosperity or more goods. It’s selling out and unemploying and therefore weakening Americans like a traitor, that you think American made, and American sweat isn’t good enough for you.
To them, tariffs are a penalty, a reserved punishment for not choosing to buy or source American.
That America’s greatness and prosperity is inherent from America itself – American minerals, steel and manufacturing plants, and the entrepreneurs and other people WANT to become American from Nadella to Musk, so why outsource the labour outside?
And this goes back from Lewis and Clark Westward expansion homesteading, manifest destiny pioneering, gold rush prospecting, Carnegie Steel, Vanderbilt Rail, Rockefeller Oil, Ford assembly line “arsenal of democracy”, Marshall Plan, shining city, stuff.
We’re not talking economics and policy. We’re talking national myths and cultural self-perception.
A completely different animal from governance and politics-as-narrative.
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US President Donald Trump ostensibly launched his global tariff campaign to “make America great again.” But according to French historian Emmanuel Todd, Trump’s actions are better explained in terms of the US’ humiliating defeat to China and Russia.
In his 1976 book “The Final Fall: An Essay on the Decomposition of the Soviet Sphere,” Todd accurately predicted the Soviet Union’s collapse 15 years later using longitudinal statistical data such as infant mortality rates.
Todd’s book “The Defeat of the West” (“La Defaite de l’Occident” in the original French), published in January 2024, contains arguments that will be shocking for Koreans who have long taken American hegemony for granted.
The best physical manifestation of America’s defeat is the war in Ukraine. After the war began in late February 2022, the US and the EU made a carefully coordinated response.
Considering that Russia’s economy comes to around 3.3% of the West (US, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea), the calculation was that heavy sanctions against Russia coupled with support for Ukraine would quickly lead to Russia raising the white flag.
The reality was different. Russia evaded sanctions with the help of China, India and the “Global South,” avoiding the economic collapse the West hoped for. There were several ups and downs, but the war has progressed in Russia’s favor, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected Trump’s deal involving a one-month ceasefire.
Why did this happen? Todd looks beyond the war and to the “fundamental changes” that have been occurring within American society. The West underestimated Russia and ignored the hollowing out of the American economy. A robust manufacturing base is critical to winning a war. Todd said he was shocked when he saw that the US couldn’t supply shells or anything to Ukraine with confidence. Russia currently produces around 250,000 shells a month, but the US has set its annual “objective” for this year at 100,000. As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2% of American college graduates — in Russia, it’s over three times that, at 23.4%.
Todd says that while Trump is attempting to revive the American manufacturing sector, it will be impossible. Drunk on the dominance of the dollar, the US has had no need to accumulate foreign currency for the sake of imports. The country’s faith-based social ethics which were part of what made American society robust during its golden era, have now collapsed. It’s now an empty country full of demoralized nihilists. The Trump factor is not a cause but a symptom.
This is a weird article, and idk if I agree with some of it. However….
>As of 2020, engineers comprised around 7.2% of American college graduates — in Russia, it’s over three times that, at 23.4%.
How can Russia possibly sustain 1/4th if everyone being an engineer. That is really wild.
My opinion is that a lot of Americans are hardcoded into supporting autarky.
They think free trade has nothing to do with rising tides lifting all boats or increases material wealth, prosperity or more goods. It’s selling out and unemploying and therefore weakening Americans like a traitor, that you think American made, and American sweat isn’t good enough for you.
To them, tariffs are a penalty, a reserved punishment for not choosing to buy or source American.
That America’s greatness and prosperity is inherent from America itself – American minerals, steel and manufacturing plants, and the entrepreneurs and other people WANT to become American from Nadella to Musk, so why outsource the labour outside?
And this goes back from Lewis and Clark Westward expansion homesteading, manifest destiny pioneering, gold rush prospecting, Carnegie Steel, Vanderbilt Rail, Rockefeller Oil, Ford assembly line “arsenal of democracy”, Marshall Plan, shining city, stuff.
We’re not talking economics and policy. We’re talking national myths and cultural self-perception.
A completely different animal from governance and politics-as-narrative.