Realistically how and when does this bubbling debt crisis blow up in the central govt’s face (if it does)
When domestic appetite for debt dries up? Decades down the line after opening up their debt markets to foreigners?
RadioRavenRide on
That’s so strange, because I don’t ever remember thinking of China as a country with particularly strong stimulus. How tf did it race past the US of all countries?
Ilikeswedishfemboys on
That is private debt.
Private debt = private investment
Mido_Aus on
Yes, I made this chart myself.
after going through the H1 PBOC data I wanted to see it laid out.
What absolutely fried me: China added more non-financial debt in 2024 alone than the US has in the past 15 years. Based on the H1 run rate 2025 is on track to add another 13–15 percentage points. Astonishing figure even relative to the double digits they’ve hit almost each year since 2010.
FYI, this is non-financial debt = households, nonbank corporates, and government.
Financial sector debt is excluded because it’s mostly internal ( interbank lending) and doesn’t reflect credit flowing into the real economy. Including it would double count hence why its standard to exclude.
PhaedrusNS2 on
Don’t tell Trump that China is beating the US at debt. He might get the wrong idea
5 Comments
Realistically how and when does this bubbling debt crisis blow up in the central govt’s face (if it does)
When domestic appetite for debt dries up? Decades down the line after opening up their debt markets to foreigners?
That’s so strange, because I don’t ever remember thinking of China as a country with particularly strong stimulus. How tf did it race past the US of all countries?
That is private debt.
Private debt = private investment
Yes, I made this chart myself.
after going through the H1 PBOC data I wanted to see it laid out.
What absolutely fried me: China added more non-financial debt in 2024 alone than the US has in the past 15 years. Based on the H1 run rate 2025 is on track to add another 13–15 percentage points. Astonishing figure even relative to the double digits they’ve hit almost each year since 2010.
FYI, this is non-financial debt = households, nonbank corporates, and government.
Financial sector debt is excluded because it’s mostly internal ( interbank lending) and doesn’t reflect credit flowing into the real economy. Including it would double count hence why its standard to exclude.
Don’t tell Trump that China is beating the US at debt. He might get the wrong idea