Michael Beckley argues that the apparent rise of “middle powers” is misleading: countries like India, Brazil, Turkey and even Europe are not becoming stronger, but more exposed as US-China rivalry intensifies.
He says the post-Cold War order let midsized states prosper under American security guarantees and globalisation without choosing sides. That world is fading as growth slows, supply chains become geopolitical weapons, and both Washington and Beijing use coercion through tariffs, sanctions and technology controls.
Beckley rejects the idea of a truly multipolar world. Coalitions such as BRICS, ASEAN or European “strategic autonomy” lack cohesion and scale, while the US and China dominate finance, technology, industry and military power.
His conclusion is that middle powers will increasingly have to align with one bloc rather than hedge between both. Despite its flaws, he argues most will still choose the US over China because it offers stronger security, markets, technology and alliances.
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Michael Beckley argues that the apparent rise of “middle powers” is misleading: countries like India, Brazil, Turkey and even Europe are not becoming stronger, but more exposed as US-China rivalry intensifies.
He says the post-Cold War order let midsized states prosper under American security guarantees and globalisation without choosing sides. That world is fading as growth slows, supply chains become geopolitical weapons, and both Washington and Beijing use coercion through tariffs, sanctions and technology controls.
Beckley rejects the idea of a truly multipolar world. Coalitions such as BRICS, ASEAN or European “strategic autonomy” lack cohesion and scale, while the US and China dominate finance, technology, industry and military power.
His conclusion is that middle powers will increasingly have to align with one bloc rather than hedge between both. Despite its flaws, he argues most will still choose the US over China because it offers stronger security, markets, technology and alliances.