More than 10,000 employees applied, but Treasury Board cannot quantify how much the incentive, or voluntary departures overall, will reduce involuntary exits.

More than 10,000 federal public servants applied for Ottawa’s early retirement incentive program before the application window closed July 24, with 7,486 applications approved by deputy heads.

But the Treasury Board has no quantifiable forecast for how much the incentive will contribute to the government’s planned workforce reductions, how many reductions will be achieved through voluntary departures overall, or how many involuntary departures may consequently be avoided.

Mohammad Kamal, director of communications to Treasury Board President Shafqat Ali (Brampton—Chinguacousy Park, Ont.), outlined the government’s position in an Aug. 5 interview with The Hill Times.

The government has committed to managing the reductions through attrition and voluntary departures “to the greatest extent possible,” states the 2025 federal budget, as it pursues approximately 16,000 full-time-equivalent reductions under the Comprehensive Expenditure Review. Those reductions can be achieved through measures including layoffs, vacant positions being eliminated, and employees retiring or resigning without being replaced.

Treasury Board has no forecast for ERI’s contribution

Kamal said the Treasury Board had not established a quantifiable forecast, expected range, or planning assumption for how many employees would take up the early retirement incentive (ERI).

“It’s hard to put a figure on the ERI just because it’s such a broad exercise,” Kamal said.

Kamal said the incentive was designed as a voluntary option for eligible employees rather than a program built around a specific numeric goal. He described early retirement incentive as an additional tool that is separate from existing workforce-adjustment provisions.

When asked whether Treasury Board had a forecast for voluntary departures overall—including the early retirement incentive, ordinary attrition, and resignations—Kamal said no, describing the broader result as difficult to quantify.

He also said Treasury Board had not established a quantifiable forecast for ERI’s contribution to the approximately 16,000 full-time-equivalent reductions.

When asked how Treasury Board would assess the extent to which early retirement incentive reduced the need for involuntary departures, Kamal did not point to a specific benchmark or method. He instead emphasized giving eligible employees the option to retire and said it would take time to see the impact and results of the broader expenditure-review exercise.

Kamal nevertheless said Treasury Board was pleased with the level of interest and participation in the program. He pointed to the volume of applications and said the government’s primary objective was to ensure eligible employees had the opportunity to choose early retirement.

“We’re casting a wide net to make sure that people have the choice to apply if they want to,” Kamal said.

The application numbers, and their limits

According to updated figures provided on Aug. 5 by the Treasury Board to The Hill Times, 7,486 of the 10,006 online applications had been approved by deputy heads. As of July 28, Treasury Board had reported that 41 applications were denied.

The online total excludes paper applications, which are still being processed. Kamal said the overall application total could increase in the coming weeks as they are added.

The deputy-head approvals do not represent completed retirements. Approved applicants must still submit a written resignation with a retirement date, after which the Pension Centre conducts a final validation before processing the retirement.

Even a completed ERI retirement cannot automatically be counted as one of the government’s planned staffing reductions or as having prevented one involuntary departure. It contributes to the reduction only if the department’s staffing level falls, such as when the departing employee is not replaced or the position is eliminated.

The application figures therefore show the level of interest in the incentive, but not how much of the government’s approximately 16,000 full-time-equivalent reductions the program will deliver.

In an Aug. 4 statement to The Hill Times, the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada (PIPSC), which represents scientists, engineers, auditors, nurses, and other federal professionals, questioned the government’s overall planning for the program.

“You can’t measure success against a goal that the government refuses to define,” the union said.

PIPSC said the national application total lacks the detail needed to show where retirements are occurring or whether they are easing workforce pressures in departments facing reductions.

“It’s impossible to know what the ERI numbers mean because the federal government is unwilling to discuss how many applicants are PIPSC members, how the ERI is being applied across different departments, or what its overall ERI target is, if they even have one,” the union said.

PIPSC also said Treasury Board has not explained how the incentive complements other mechanisms being used to reduce staffing.

“Treasury Board still hasn’t explained how ERI, workforce adjustment, alternation, and future rounds of workforce reductions are meant to fit together—if at all,” the union said. “Instead, departments are implementing different pieces of the puzzle without anyone clearly articulating what the finished picture is supposed to look like.”

The union described the early retirement incentive program as a narrow measure because it is limited to employees who meet specific age and years-of-service requirements. It said the program was not a realistic option for most public-service professionals or a substitute for a broader workforce strategy.

How ERI could affect layoff decisions

The Public Service Commission’s guidance says a selection of employees for retention or lay-off, known as a SERLO, is used when some, but not all, employees in an affected part of an organization will be laid off. The process generally compares employees in similar positions or performing similar duties.

The guidance also says voluntary departures, including retirements, can reduce the number of employees subject to a SERLO and, in some cases, eliminate the need for the process.

“An ERI departure could eliminate the need for a SERLO, but the government hasn’t been transparent about how, or if, that’s being factored into workforce decisions,” PIPSC said.

Treasury Board’s published ERI figures, which cover applications submitted through its online portal, do not show how many departures are occurring in affected work units, how many are being counted toward departmental staffing reductions, or how many SERLO processes may consequently be reduced or avoided.