Malema avoids jail for now

Summary:

– Julius Malema, leader of South Africa's far right Economic Freedom Fighters party, was sentenced to five years in prison on firearms charges yesterday

– He was granted leave to appeal the sentencing, but not granted leave to appeal the conviction itself

– Another court will now review whether the sentencing was too harsh and whether an alternative sentencing is more appropriate

– He is out on bail, pending the appeal

– The article discusses the case, the appeals process and provides responses from various politicians and legal analysts.

Broad Relevance:

– It is encouraging that Malema was found guilty, that he was prosecuted by the State and that he was sentenced by the judge, who happened to be an Afrikaner woman. This shows that for all its problems South Africa as a non-racial constitutional democracy is more robust than its critics allege.

– Even Malema's leave to appeal is evidence of the presence of a constitutional democracy. Too many critics of Malema wish that the State could just lock him up because he's a troublemaker, in their view, without thinking about what it would mean to be able to lock up a major opposition politician frivolously and without due process.

– Malema was given 2 direct imprisonment sentences and 3 fines. In order to avoid prison time he will have two have both overturned. If he is imprisoned for more than one year, he cannot serve in Parliament for up to five years after the sentence is completed.

Specific Relevance:

– If Malema had gone straight to prison, the EFF would have been forced to find a new figurehead and leader.

– If he had not been found guilty, it would have been business as usual.

– Now that he is out on bail, they are in a weird place. No doubt, some leaders will assess he will ultimately be imprisoned and knocked out of Parliamentary politics for 5 years. They will start making moves to position themselves as up and coming leaders. But doing this when he is out on bail is doing this at risk of being purged for your ambition.

– Malema does not take kindly to ambitious climbers conspiring against him, and has pushed people out of the party on such suspicions before.

– Even if he has not (yet) been imprisoned, the cat is out of the bag. There is a real possibility for change of leadership in the EFF. Party politicians will respond to that.

– The EFF is going to enter a period of intrigue, maneuvering and political contestation until the appeal ruling comes back. And it could end up damaging the party if Malema mishandles it.

– Local government elections are this year. If Malema can rally the party under a persecution narrative, they will perform better. But if the party falls to internal succession fights, they could flop.